By Marcus Hellyer and Andrew Nicholls*
In a previous piece, we examined the broad schedule of Australia’s capability transition from conventional submarines to nuclear-powered submarines (SSNs). In planning the transition, we shouldn’t just be focusing on the point when the first SSN enters service, which appears to be around 2040 at the earliest, based on statements from the government. There are later, equally significant milestones, such as when Australia will have a viable SSN capability (likely requiring three or four boats), when the Collins-class submarines can be retired and when the final SSN enters service. Those things will occur in the late 2040s, 2050s or even 2060s. The key point is that we need to manage the capability risk across the entire transition.
