A new risk model for mine counter operations

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Copyright © 2020, Proceedings magazine, U.S. Naval Institute, reprinted with permission. www.usni.org

By Captain Scott Craig, Royal Australian Navy*

Marine warfare is often the “wicked problem” of any naval warfare scenario. It is complex and requires time to resolve and often cannot adequately be practiced within the constraints of an oversubscribed exercise scenario or time-limited operation. This was demonstrated during the clearance of the Khawr Abd Allah waterway approach to Iraq in the northern Arabian Gulf in 2003, where the estimate to clear was approximately four weeks, but the time allotted was 24 hours (to allow a British ship in to deliver humanitarian supplies). Whatever could be achieved in that short time had to be defined as the acceptable level of risk.

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