South China Sea incident spike

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Incidents between Chinese and Philippine forces across the South China Sea and Luzon Strait have spiked in recent weeks as the two countries attempt to enforce their territorial claims with small boats, cutters and aircraft, US Naval Institute News reports. 

Philippine and Chinese forces have dangerously engaged each other at least six times at several disputed areas, including Scarborough Shoal, Second Thomas Shoal and the Spratly Islands, since the beginning of October. A new front of tension has also arisen within the Luzon Strait near the Philippine Batanes Islands. Located closer to Taipei than Manila, these islands overlook a strategic chokepoint used by commercial and military vessels to transit the First Island Chain.

From Oct. 1-2, the Philippine Coast Guard pressured a Chinese civilian maritime survey vessel to depart waters near Batanes. The China Coast Guard deployed one of its largest cutters from a design derived from the Type 052D destroyer hull to provide protection for the vessel. According to the Philippine Coast Guard, the Chinese vessels departed and were shadowed by a force of three Taiwan Coast Guard Administration patrol vessels. Taipei deployed these vessels once the standoff approached Taiwanese exclusive economic zone waters.

On Oct. 3, an armed People’s Liberation Army Air Force J-16 fighter intercepted and closed range with a Philippine Air Force C-208 Cessna over Scarborough Shoal. Beijing’s fighters regularly fly 120 nautical miles off Luzon to patrol the maritime feature against Manila’s overflights of intelligence collection aircraft. To counter the Philippines’ American-provided turboprops, China’s Scarborough deployment involves heavy fighters, light combat jets and early airborne warning and command aircraft.

The Philippine military denounced the interception while the PLA Southern Theater Command called on Manila to “stop rights violations and provocative acts immediately.”

Tensions around Thitu Island, Second Thomas Shoal and Loaita Island flared from Sunday to Friday as the Philippines pushed back against encroaching Chinese forces and carried out a medical evacuation in the area.

On Sunday, small boats attempted to outmaneuver each other as the combined Philippine military, Coast Guard and police garrison of Thitu Island tried to apprehend a vessel conducting illegal fishing. Chinese maritime militia, Coast Guard and one PLAN helicopter harassed the combined unit and forced a return to the island.

Thursday saw an extended medical evacuation of a sick sailor from BRP Sierra Madre (LT-57) at Second Thomas Shoal due to intensive China Coast Guard cutter harassment of Philippine cutters responsible for the mission. On Friday, Philippine Marines, sailors and Coast Guard personnel worked to force back a China maritime militia vessel and its 22 small fishing boats from the waters around Loaita Island. The mission follows a previous encounter with the Chinese vessel last month.

The six incidents, encounters and standoffs represent a significant uptick in activities between Manila and Beijing around the contested waters and air space of South China Sea maritime features in recent months.

Last month, Manila reported that Chinese forces blocked a resupply mission to the Philippine outpost aboard Sierra Madre. The incident was the first publicly reported instance of China intercepting Philippine forces since a prior provisional agreement was inked between the two following a clash in June of 2024.

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