The Future of Information Warfare[1] in Navy
By Commodore Matthew Doornbos, RAN
This article was first published in the Australian Naval Review, 2021, Issue 1, in June 2021.
War is evolving in form towards informationized warfare, and intelligent warfare is on the horizon.[2]
Introduction
Australia’s geostrategic environment has changed fundamentally; the great power competition within the Indo-Pacific region has seen states become increasingly more assertive. This rivalry is seeing the character of warfare changing.
The 2020 Defence Strategic Update highlights the changing nature of the Indo-Pacific and the overall reduction in warning time. The accompanying digital and technological revolution underway, as a precursor to the fourth industrial revolution, is enhancing advances in technology across the spectrum of military capabilities. In the Indo-Pacific, there is a focus on specific capabilities, notably cyber, space and missile technologies,[3] that are designed to exploit the assessed vulnerabilities of military forces in the region. These capabilities threaten to remove much of what the United States and its allies have enjoyed over the years in the maritime domain: decision-making time and overwhelming military force. The speed, volume and complexity at which these threats can be delivered is likely beyond the ability of humans to respond to in time.
This paper aims to highlight the significant and underpinning role information warfare has in Navy as it operates in the contemporary maritime warfighting environment. The ability of Navy to operate within the region will be significantly impacted without employing a level of information warfare understanding.
Technology and the Influence on Warfare
Technology is all around us; it is in strong demand within our lives and has significant implications for future warfare. Technological development has seen increased capabilities in sensors, weapons, and communications systems, making integration in our ships’ combat systems more necessary and complex.[4]Advances in computer processing power will necessitate an increase in the use of artificial intelligence (AI) to make sense of the large volumes of data collected by sensors and integrated into our combat systems to subsequently provide situational awareness for commanders at sea.
The evolving threats expose Navy to considerable vulnerabilities. The step-change in missile speed through hypersonics, together with the increasing complexity and sophistication of missile seeker heads in service now and in development, create a time imperative that requires responses potentially beyond human capacity and comprehension. The threats posed from the space and cyber domains across the electromagnetic (EM) spectrum are making many of our existing communications systems vulnerable and forcing the use of suboptimal alternative means to remain connected within the force and to higher headquarters.[5] There are further challenges posed by quantum computing, as well as potential developments in AI that will potentially make conventional weapons and weapon systems less relevant in future military activities.[6]
The Contemporary Environment
The congested and contested EM spectrum is no longer ours to control, let alone function unhindered within. To deliver maritime effects in the contemporary warfighting environment necessitates a detailed understanding of the EM spectrum and the ability to manoeuvre within it. Our maritime units will have to operate within this congested and contested EM environment both from a joint and a coalition perspective. Sophisticated adversaries within the region have changed the character of warfare; the speed of warfare is no longer within the capability of humans to respond. Our warfare systems will be moving from humans in the loop[7] to humans on the loop[8], reliant on data, big data across the spheres of warfare, autonomous systems, networked sensors and effectors.
The application of information warfare related effects will be critical to ensure Navy platforms, systems and people can undertake what have been our traditional warfighting disciplines – those of surface warfare, air warfare and anti-submarine warfare. These warfighting disciplines have evolved and are underpinned by a complex EM spectrum and complicated by potential sophisticated adversaries. The application of information warfare related effects against such adversaries will require detailed levels of planning to deliver and coordinate kinetic and non-kinetic effects across the spectrum of warfare. The addition of long-range weapons to Navy will create capabilities that will have an increased dependency on information warfare related capabilities to assure the delivery of maritime effects. Information warfare for Navy will be a foundational warfare discipline, coordinating predominantly joint information warfare related effects through the alignment of people, processes and technologies.
The US Navy’s distributed maritime operations concept[9] and Project Overmatch[10] outline high-end warfare for multinational surface platforms operating and sharing data and information in concert with air, land and sub-surface platforms (manned and unmanned) across vast distances in a complex EM environment coordinated within a joint all domain command and control architecture. The assimilation of vast amounts of real-time data into combat management systems necessitates the complex integration of a wide variety of sensors and data storage media to receive, process and present comprehensible air, maritime, land, space, information and cyber domains. The Navy and ADF can expect to operate within this construct.
Future Capabilities
The addition of autonomous systems such as Loyal Wingman is an example of the potential of future digital technologies and capabilities.[11] Autonomous systems in conjunction with the introduction of maritime electromagnetic manoeuvre warfare (MEMW) to Navy and, more broadly, electromagnetic spectrum (EMS) operations to the ADF will provide a competitive advantage against sophisticated adversaries. MEMW will utilise intelligence from open and classified sources, to manoeuvre within the congested and contested EM spectrum and employ our complex combat systems to deliver warfighting effects. Systems of systems integration will be required to ensure we can meet the challenges of the contested EM spectrum. In conjunction with MEMW, the reintroduction of electronic attack into Navy will be a substantial undertaking placing significant pressure on our workforce, as will the level of detailed warfare planning and execution required within our platforms and maritime task groups.
An Important Foundation
Navy has designated two combat system families, the Aegis and SAAB 9LV, at the core of its warfighting capabilities.[12] These are integrated with other sensors, including electronic and underwater warfare and, in time, remote and autonomous systems.[13] [14] These combat system families will allow our workforce to train, operate and gain expertise on common system baselines. They will be updated regularly to remain tactically relevant.
Continuous Capability Development System
Regular upgrade of our warfare systems will be necessary to meet levels of uncertainty within the region. Information warfare systems, in particular, will need a continuous capability development system to be able to adapt our information warfare related capabilities regularly. This premise is centred on the ability to continuously understand the environment, understand the dependencies with other projects and programs, implement fundamental science and new technologies, strengthen relationships with industry, and undertake regular testing and trials on new systems. These aspects will be fundamental to remaining tactically relevant.
Implications for Our People
While often these challenges are viewed through the lens of capability and technology solutions, the key to success in the future environment will be up-front and focused investment in the workforce, their training and education, and their interaction with future technologies. The addition of the Information Warfare Officer will no doubt improve our warfighting outcomes, but all warfare workgroups will need to have a greater understanding of information warfare and contemporary technology. Without this increased knowledge the ability to employ our increasingly complex warfighting systems and deliver coordinated warfighting effects across all domains will be challenging. Navy will need to unlock the potential of our workforce, through education, training and learning approaches to create an intellectual edge.
Technological advances in AI and big data will facilitate the automation of processes. Combat management systems will continue to blend semi-autonomous and autonomous systems implementing human on the loop and future human-machine teaming.[15] Keeping our sailors and officers educated and trained in these technologies and capability advancements is a crucial factor and, some would argue, a critical success factor. Having sufficient knowledge of the systems and associated technologies will enable the employment of these systems to best effect against a sophisticated adversary. With research into human-machine teaming continuing, maintaining close relationships with both the research and development community and industry will be vital to gaining and maintaining sufficient knowledge for the future. The recent launch of Navy’s Robotics, Autonomous Systems and Artificial Intelligence Strategy will only hasten this priority.
Conclusion
Information warfare within Navy will be an underpinning warfare discipline for the contemporary maritime environment. Information warfare related capabilities have to be ‘always on’ and operate in a technology-powered machine learning, AI-enabled environment. These information warfare related capabilities will be led by intelligence from both classified and open sources. The ability to manoeuvre within the information domain will be crucial to ensure Navy can deliver the kinetic and non-kinetic effects when and where required. Information warfare related capabilities and Navy’s broader warfighting capabilities will need to be updated regularly to remain tactically relevant. Suitably trained and prepared Navy and ADF people will be crucial in this endeavour.
[1] Information warfare is not defined within the US Department of Defense or the Australian Defence Organisation. Information warfare is defined by Mike Dahm as ‘Offensive and defensive actions in physical and virtual space that enable and protect the friendly force’s ability to access, process, and communicate information that also deny, exploit, corrupt or destroy an adversary force’s ability to use information’. M Dahm, ‘The reality of war should define information warfare’, Proceedings (U.S. Naval Institute), vol. 147(3), 2021,<https://www.usni.org/magazines/proceedings/2021/march/reality-war-should-define-information-warfare?s=09>, accessed 21 March 2021.
[2] The State Council Information Office of the People’s Republic of China, China’s national defense in the new era, Foreign Languages Press Co. Ltd, Beijing, 2019.
[3] LA Del Monte, Genius weapons – Artificial intelligence, autonomous weaponry and the future of warfare, Prometheus Books, New York, 2018; JD Winkler, T Marler, MN Posard, RS Cohen & ML Smith, Reflections on the future of warfare and implications for personnel policies of the U.S. Department of Defense, RAND Corporation, Santa Monica, CA, 2019.
[4] B Baker, ‘BAE Systems sets out its futuristic plan for naval combat systems’, Global Defence Technology Yearbook 2019 [online], 2020, <https://defence.nridigital.com/global_defence_technology_yearbook_2019/bae_systems_sets_out_its_futuristic_plan_for_naval_combat_systems>, accessed 3 May 2020; Winkler et al., Reflections on the future of warfare; P Leavy, ‘Get the balance between the art and science of maritime warfare right’, Proceedings (U.S. Naval Institute), March 2018.
[5] M O’Hanlon, ‘Forecasting change in military technology, 2020–2040’, ‘Security, Strategy, and Order’ series. Brookings, Washington, DC, 2018.
[6] R Scott, ‘Trust in the machine: Innovation in AI drives navies to think afresh’, Jane’s Navy International, 2020; Baker, ‘BAE systems sets out its futuristic plan for naval combat systems’.
[7] ‘Human in the loop. The machine performs some functions autonomously yet it requires a human to perform functions that complete the task cycle’ (Australian Defence Force, ADF Concept for Command and Control of the Future Force, Commonwealth of Australia, Canberra, 2019, p. 31).
[8] ‘Human on the loop. The machine performs all functions autonomously but a human may intervene to stop or modify the outcome before the task is complete’ (ibid.).
[9] B Clark & TA Walton, Taking back the seas: Transforming the US surface fleet for decision-centric warfare, Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments, Washington, DC, 2019.
[10] DB Larter, ‘US Navy to develop drone deployment strategy’, Defense News, 21 July 2020, <https://www.defensenews.com/naval/2020/07/21/the-us-navy-is-trying-to-get-its-act-together-on-unmanned-systems/>, accessed 25 March 2021.
[11] S Kuper, ‘First Airpower Teaming System unmanned aircraft roll-out a win for Australian industry’, Defence Connect, 5 May 2020, <https://www.defenceconnect.com.au/strike-air-combat/6041-first-air-power-teaming-system-unmanned-aircraft-roll-out-a-win-for-australian-industry?utm_source=DefenceConnect&utm_campaign=05_05_2020&utm_medium=email&utm_content=1&utm_emailID=d3241204165c8a65f5fb52801acbdd3f847dba565917707c2449618890e21aca>, accessed 6 May 2020.
[12] P Quinn, Maritime Environment Working Group, Canberra.
[13] Australian Naval Institute, ‘Chief of Navy launches the RAS AI Strategy 2040’, Australian Naval Institute [website], 2020, <https://navalinstitute.com.au/chief-of-navy-launches-the-ras-ai-strategy-2040>, accessed 11 April 2021.
[14] Defence Science Institute, ‘Navy Robotics, Autonomous Systems and Artificial Intelligence (RAS-AI) Strategy 2040 announced’, Defence Science Institute [website], 2020, <https://www.defencescienceinstitute.com/news/navy-robotics-autonomous-systems-and-artificial-intelligence-ras-ai-strategy-2040-announced>, accessed 11 April 2021.
[15] Baker, ‘BAE systems sets out its futuristic plan for naval combat systems’.
