Predictable strategy, unpredictable operations

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By Carlyle A. Thayer

The U.S Navy. vessel, USS Bunker Hill conducted two FONOPs [Freedom of Navigation Operational Patrols] on April 28th and 29th in the Paracel and Spratly Islands, respectively. How will China react?

Since Donald Trump became president of the United States in 2017, the U.S. Department of Defense has stepped up the number of freedom of navigation operational patrols (FONOPS) in the South China Sea (see table in Appendix). The U.S. Navy conducted six FONOPS in 2017, 5 FONOPS in 2018, nine  FONOPS in 2019 and four in the first quarter of 2020.

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