The Core Production Capability programme, tasked with delivering safe nuclear reactor cores for the UK’s submarine fleet, remains under pressure as highlighted in the latest Infrastructure and Projects Authority (IPA) Annual Report, UK Defence Journal reports.
Maintaining its Red rating, the programme faces critical challenges in achieving key milestones crucial to sustaining the Continuous At Sea Deterrent (CASD).
According to the report, the programme is fundamental to providing the Royal Navy with the capability to propel the Dreadnought-class submarines and a “modern, safe, and sovereign capability to manufacture further cores” for a future fleet of attack submarines. This capability is also essential for fulfilling the UK’s commitments under the AUKUS defence partnership.
The IPA flagged ongoing delays, stating: “Ongoing challenges associated with achieving the required delivery date for the first Dreadnought submarine nuclear core and the importance of that milestone to sustaining the Continuous at Sea Deterrent.”
The programme is working closely with suppliers to address risks, ensuring core delivery aligns with progress on Dreadnought Boat 1, while also finalising the last reactor core for the Astute-class submarines.
Despite these challenges, the programme’s end date remains set for April 30, 2028, though this timeline is likely to shift. As stated in the report, “This will need to be revised to reflect scope changes later this year as a result of core requirements for AUKUS, [and] the revised scope will likely be approved in mid-2024.”
The project remains under scrutiny due to its strategic importance to the Royal Navy and its broader defence obligations. By providing “safe nuclear reactor cores to meet the Royal Navy’s submarine programme, now and for the long term,” the programme supports the sustainability of the UK’s submarine fleet and ensures readiness for future challenges.
However, meeting its objectives requires overcoming significant hurdles, including aligning manufacturing timelines with operational requirements and managing risks related to the Dreadnought programme.
The programme is among several initiatives that highlight the complexities of delivering large-scale defence infrastructure projects. The IPA has reiterated that Red ratings indicate severe delivery risks, requiring significant intervention to ensure successful outcomes.
The Core Production Capability programme’s success is critical not only for the CASD but also for the UK’s defence commitments under AUKUS, particularly as it transitions to a “flexible and adaptable attack submarine fleet.”
Understanding Delivery Confidence Assessment (DCA) Ratings
The Delivery Confidence Assessment (DCA) ratings provide an evaluation of the likelihood of a project meeting its objectives in terms of time, cost, and scope. The Infrastructure and Projects Authority uses these ratings to identify challenges and provide recommendations for improvement. The ratings are categorized as follows:
- Green: A Green rating indicates that the project is on track to deliver successfully, with minimal risks identified. Any issues are well understood and manageable within the existing plans.
- Amber: An Amber rating signifies that while successful delivery is feasible, there are significant issues that require focused management attention. These challenges could pose risks to the project’s timeline, budget, or objectives if not addressed effectively.
- Red: A Red rating reflects serious concerns about the project’s ability to meet its objectives. Immediate corrective action is needed to address fundamental issues, as the project is unlikely to succeed without significant changes or interventions.
These ratings offer a snapshot of project performance and help ensure that potential issues are identified and mitigated early, improving the likelihood of successful delivery.
