By Tim Coyle*
The People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) has carried out a successful inaugural deployment of a powerful surface combatant force which has tested the Australian political- military establishment and is probably well satisfied that its aims have been met.
The three-unit People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) task force currently circumnavigating the Australian continent is likely the first of a series of similar future deployments, according to the People’s Republic of China’s Ambassador to Australia, Xiao Qian.
Even as the task force enters the Great Australian Bight, the People’s Liberation Army and the Chinese government should be pleased at the Australian reaction, which has been totally in accordance with their expectations: hysterical political finger pointing and woolly admissions from the Chief of the Defence Force.
These are the facts we know through the media:
- The two PLAN surface combatants and an underway replenishment ship were tracked by the ADF, in cooperation with the New Zealand Defence Force, since their passage through the Torres Strait.
- At short notice the force advised its intention to undertake ‘live fire’ exercises in the Tasman Sea beneath the heavily trafficked Australian-New Zealand commercial air routes. HMNZS Te Kaha reported two episodes of ordnance expenditure (likely gunfire).
- Controversy erupted when it was revealed that a Virgin Australia trans-Tasman flight, monitoring the 121.5 guard frequency, copied a PLAN warning of the impending exercise. The Virgin flight notified Air Traffic Control which advised Defence (presumably Joint Operations Command).
- Political fury erupted when it appeared it (allegedly) took 50 minutes for Te Kaha’s report to NZDF headquarters to be passed to JOC. The Chief of the Defence Force (CDF), appearing, at Senate Estimates, indicated this was understandable as the report would have had to pass through various clearance levels.
- The CDF was unable to confirm whether a subsurface asset (a nuclear submarine?) was accompanying the surface units.
- The Australian Defence Minister subsequently stated that this should not be ‘conflated’ as there was no ‘threat’ (presumably because we were not at war?).
Assessment
- The PLAN had every right to be where was in international waters.
- As such it can carry out live fire exercises (as all navies do). Trouble is – unlike our neighbourly and respectful practice of giving 24 – 48 hours notice – the PLAN doesn’t.
- This is another example of the PLA’s finely tuned ‘grey’ tactics, honed by the China Coast Guard, the People’s Armed Police Maritime Militia and now carried on by the ‘big guns’.
- The live fire evolution was deliberately planned under grey zone tactics to be provocative – to test the political and military reactions of both Australia and New Zealand.
- It showed the immature reaction by both governments and an inadequate operational response to the exercise advice.
- The Australian Defence Minister’s comment regarding ‘conflation’ is weak. A first ever deployment of a powerful surface action flotilla into our immediate region is a major incursion. Communication between the Australian and New Zealand operational headquarters should be expected to be timely via direct secure communications, unhindered by restrictive chain of command procedures.
- The PLAN force has likely collected intelligence on the political-military furore and operational deficiencies; the mission will culminate as the force transits waters in the vicinity of HMAS Stirling, where a USN SSN has arrived for a port call.
Conclusion
We are unlikely to be know what precise action the ADF took as regards intelligence collection against the PLAN force and what will be the Lessons Learned. Suffice to say this has been the proverbial ‘wake up’ call and may well dictate future ADF operations in support of our immediate region rather than deployments further afield.
*Tim Coyle is a former intelligence analyst
