The Australian government needs to lead the narrative on AUKUS. If it doesn’t, others will.
More and better-informed discussion about AUKUS is a good thing. The Australian public deserves continued healthy debates about what AUKUS, and the significant increase in defence spending outlined in the National Defence Strategy, mean for them, their communities, the economy and the Indo-Pacific region. The Australian Strategic Policy Institute. The Strategist.
AUKUS leaders have described the partnership as a once-in-a-generation opportunity to promote peace and security throughout the Indo-Pacific. The subtext of which is to deter China from unilaterally altering the status quo in its favour. For AUKUS to deliver on its big promise, and for the Australian people to accept AUKUS’ price tag of hundreds of billions of dollars, the government needs to clearly explain what AUKUS will deliver, and why it’s important. And they will need to do so continuously because the stakes are too high if they fail.
A case in point is the recent sharp disagreement between lauded Australian Labor Party elders and advocates of AUKUS. The latest episode emerged around the security agreement’s three-year mark last week.
The debate reflects careful strategic thinking and decades of public service on both sides. These significant divergences in opinion should not be dismissed. There is value in discussing the issue of capability gaps, Australia’s sovereignty, the fiscal weight of the agreement, and the difficult trade-offs it will require, including around acquisition of other capabilities or other public goods. Momentous policy decisions like such as AUKUS demand rich and even heated discussions because no individual or group can claim a monopoly over what’s best for Australia’s national interests. To claim otherwise would be a disservice and an act of hubris that would be damaging to the tradition of Australia’s democratic discourse.
The government can play a powerful role before intellectual divergences could harden into political factions. Should the government vacate its responsibilities to promote the agreement, an environment that risks disenfranchising the very people essential for AUKUS’ success can emerge. At worst, an information vacuum would be ripe for exploitation by Chinese and Russian influence operations. Australia has already suffered from such tactics in the past.
AUKUS has an estimated 30-year time horizon to achieve a fully operational sovereign nuclear powered submarine capability, with eight boats in service. This equates to at least 10 election cycles in Australia, eight in the US, and six in Britain, during which AUKUS will be on voters’ minds. No policy is immune to political change, and neither is AUKUS. Support for the partnership will need to withstand competing priorities including housing, climate, health, education, unemployment and immigration.
The good news is the government has a positive story to tell about how AUKUS will benefit Australia including notable progress to date.
The AUKUS Optimal Pathway was announced just 564 days ago, on 13 March 2023. Since then, Australian Defence Force and Australian defence contractors have started studying at US and British submarine training schools and are embedded in their shipyards. Other Australians are training on visiting US nuclear-powered attack submarines. This will continue to expand over coming years, providing the backbone of Australia’s sovereign AUKUS workforce.
The Australian government has also established over 4000 science and technology university placements at 16 institutions across the country to build out this capability. Each country has agreed to personnel exchanges to support this growth. This transfer of knowledge and expertise will provide advances in education, technology and business competitiveness for the Australian community.
Australian industry will benefit from the reforms brought to streamline defence trade, information and technology sharing. These steps will enable co-development, co-manufacturing and co-delivering of advanced capabilities. The resultant path from groundbreaking research to commercialisation will help ensure our most innovative researchers and companies won’t have to leave Australia to grow.
A prime example of what is possible is the government’s bold entry into the quantum technology industry. Separate to the AUKUS endeavour, but sure to benefit from reduced barriers to cooperation, the government announced earlier this year an almost $1 billion investment in PsiQuantum to build the world’s first fault-tolerant quantum computer in Brisbane. This investment, which demonstrates Australia’s commitment to drive innovation and boost economic growth, will create 400 highly skilled local jobs, establish partnerships with local industries and fund university placements, transforming the industry.
The US has quickly followed suit with its own US$500 million investment in PsiQuantum, building a quantum campus in Chicago. Likewise, Britain announced £100 million for five new quantum research hubs. AUKUS partners are investing in groundbreaking quantum technologies that will support national security and directly benefit people’s lives through better healthcare and clean energy.
The issues that demand discussion will not be settled anytime soon. The domestic debate over AUKUS and Australia’s increased investment in advanced defence capability will intensify and change, shaped by domestic and international issues. The government’s preferred approach of limited public discussion is not suitable for the scale of this venture.
AUKUS is an immense undertaking that will reshape Australia’s strategic calculus, lethal capabilities and defence industrial base for decades to come. There is an immutable responsibility on the current government to take the public into its confidence and openly discuss the costs and benefits of the endeavour.
